A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
